Is Now a Good Time to Buy Real Estate in BC

The four questions that matter more than the market

1. Will you own this home for at least five years, ideally ten? Over that horizon, the month you bought in matters far less than people think, and closing costs are spread thin. Over two years, timing is everything and you are gambling.
2. Can you carry it comfortably at today's rate, with a cushion? Not at the maximum pre-approval. With room for a rate renewal that is higher, a job change, a child, a roof.
3. Is your life stable enough to stay put? Job, relationship, family needs. The expensive mistake is not buying at the wrong price; it is having to sell at the wrong time.
4. Do you have the home you actually want available? A good market with nothing you would live in is not a good time. A soft market with the right house on the right street is.

If the answers are yes, the market question becomes secondary. If any is no, no market is good enough.

How to read the current conditions yourself

Three numbers from the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board's monthly report, for South Surrey White Rock specifically. Months of inventory: above six favours buyers, below four favours sellers. Sales-to-active-listings ratio: below about 12 percent is a buyer's market, above 20 a seller's. Median days on market: rising means leverage is shifting to you. Then the Bank of Canada's rate path, because the payment on a mortgage matters more to your life than the price of the house. I pull these every month and will tell you what they say for the Peninsula, not the province.

When waiting is the right call

• You are less than two years from a likely move, for work or family.
• You would be buying at the limit of what you qualify for, with no reserve.
• Your down payment would come from money you may need, or from a market you are not sure of.
• You have not found a home you would be glad to own for a decade. Buying the wrong house because the market looks good is the error I see most.

When waiting quietly costs you

• You are waiting for the bottom. You will only know it in hindsight, and by then inventory has thinned and competition is back.
• You are paying rent that is close to what a mortgage payment would be, and building no equity while you wait.
• A buyer's market is on, with inventory and negotiable sellers, and you are treating it as a reason for caution rather than the opportunity it is.
• You are waiting for rates to fall without noticing that lower rates bring buyers back and lift prices. The cheaper money and the cheaper house rarely arrive together.

What I actually tell people

Buy when your life is ready and the right home is available, in whatever market exists, and use the market conditions to decide how you buy rather than whether. In a soft market, negotiate hard, inspect thoroughly and take your time. In a tight one, be pre-approved, decisive and willing to pay fair value for the right home. Across the years I have done this, the clients who did well bought homes they could carry and stayed in them. The ones who did poorly tried to time it, or stretched, or had to sell early. The market was a smaller factor than any of those.

The short version

• Horizon, affordability with a cushion, life stability and the right home matter more than the month.
• Read FVREB's Peninsula numbers and the Bank of Canada yourself: inventory, sales ratio, days on market.
• Wait if your life or your finances are not ready. Do not wait for a bottom you cannot see.
• Use the market to decide how you buy, not whether.

If you want to talk through the four questions with someone who will tell you to wait if that is the right answer, call me. I have told plenty of people to wait, and most of them came back when it was time.